Insights
Our House View, research notes and planning guides — written for clients who want the reasoning, not a headline and a chart.
House View — Q3 2026
For most of the last fifteen years, the defensive half of a balanced portfolio earned very little and was held mainly for its behaviour in a crisis. That has changed. With real yields positive across most of the developed curve, high-quality duration once again pays you to hold it.
The implication is not that investors should rush back into bonds wholesale. It is that the bar for every other defensive holding has risen — and several of the alternatives added during the low-yield years no longer clear it.
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Published as we have something worth saying, rather than to a content calendar.
Private markets
Private markets belong in long-horizon portfolios. That is not the same as saying every private fund on offer deserves your capital — and manager dispersion here is far wider than in listed markets.
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Planning
Most of what a founder keeps after an exit is determined before the deal is signed. A practical timeline of what to do, and when, in the year and a half before a sale process begins.
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Currency
The usual answer — the one you earn in — is often wrong. For families with school fees abroad and retirement plans elsewhere, the liability currency is a better starting point than the income currency.
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Behaviour
The standard argument against market timing is usually made badly. Here is the version that survives scrutiny — and the part of it that critics are right about.
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Governance
The familiar proverb blames spendthrift grandchildren. The evidence points somewhere less comfortable — at the generation that refused to discuss the money at all.
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House View
Our previous quarterly view, kept here for the record — including the calls that have since looked wrong, which we do not remove.
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